Recent notes
Gold, real rates, and the price of insurance
When real yields fall, gold stops looking like a relic and starts looking like a hedge again. A short framework for thinking about allocation size.
What index rebalancing does to quiet stocks
Twice a year the big indices reshuffle, and for two weeks prices are set by flows rather than opinions. Notes on watching without chasing.
Reading the AI capex cycle like an old industrial cycle
Data centers are this decade's railroads: enormous upfront spending, uncertain unit economics, and a financing structure worth reading carefully.
Cash is a position
Short rates above four percent changed the opportunity cost math. Holding cash is no longer the same decision it was in 2021.